Bay Area COVID Migration May Be Slower Than Expected
Maybe the great exodus from the Bay Area is just an escape from San Francisco.
According to a new survey. Residents of Santa Clara and San Benito counties were more likely to come from New York, Boston, Chicago, and Washington, DC.
Although California is one of the top states for outgoing residents, the Bay Area has not broken through the country’s top five exodus regions, according to an analysis by North American Moving Services and Zillow. The most common starting points, according to the survey, included three cities in California, Anaheim, San Diego and Riverside, as well as New York and Chicago.
Investigation showed a continuation of the Bay Area pipeline to Austin, Texas, as well as Phoenix, Denver, Portland and Seattle.
“The pandemic has not turned the tide,” Zillow economist Jeff Tucker said. “In some ways, it sped up the process.”
The pandemic and remote working have allowed Bay Area employees to scatter across the state and country, looking for more space, cheaper rents or lower mortgages, and more far from neighbors.
The abandonment of the cities has lowered rents in San Francisco, San Jose and Oakland, while pushing the prices of suburban homes in the Bay Area to near record highs.
But those skyrocketing housing costs – the median selling price of a single-family home in the area hit $ 935,000 in February – are likely pushing back more residents, economists say.
The survey is based on North American Moving Services customers between January and November 2020 and ranked the best cities for moves and moves. Tucker said the investigation likely included more older families moving with professional service.
Offshoring could accelerate. About half of those polled in a recent Zillow survey said they would be comfortable moving under current COVID-19 restrictions, but 7 in 10 said they would be willing to move into a new home or a new apartment after generalized vaccinations.
The online real estate company estimates that vaccination totals could prompt an additional 14 million US homeowners to move this year. “It’s hard to imagine the scale of this demand for homes,” Tucker said.
California movers may also be responsible for creating some of these cities, including Phoenix, Austin and Boise, Idaho, the hottest real estate markets in the country, where prices are up at least 15% from the previous year. Real estate experts say the pandemic has caused many people to re-evaluate their business and personal decisions.
Paul Getty, CEO of investment and real estate advisory firm First Guardian Group in San Jose, said clients were exploring more out-of-state property purchases.
Getty has seen more clients move out of the Bay Area and, in some cases, sell rental properties, into lower-cost areas. Many, he said, are fed up with “taxes and the cost of living here.”
Popular destinations have been Texas and Arizona, although others have relocated to colder mountain retreats. A longtime homeowner who sells a home on the peninsula can make a big profit, buy a new home in a small community, and have a seven-figure nest egg to tap into.
“It creates a very, very enjoyable retirement lifestyle,” Getty said.
But there are still uncertainties about the impact of remote working on the long-term housing market. Some large tech companies are still planning a return to offices.
“The very big question remains for the Bay Area: what will happen to housing when large companies call their employees home on the mothership?” Tucker said.
