Two years ago, the first pandemic-era lockdowns crushed Southern California’s job market.

But a stunning rebound from those dark and anxious days now raises questions about an economy facing “too much good stuff”.

Two springs ago, bosses in Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties sidelined 1.27 million workers as government officials and business leaders scrambled to find a way to slow down the spread of the coronavirus.

This staffing spree pushed the four counties’ unemployment rate to a pandemic high of 17.6%, down from 3.9%.

Layoffs and dismissals quickly turned into rehiring. Billions of economic stimulus dollars have been thrown at the national economy to stabilize businesses and then revive them. Consumers have received tremendous help paying bills and getting food on the table.

And don’t forget the commercial boost from the medical miracle of coronavirus vaccines. These breakthroughs have significantly reduced the risk of hospitalization or death for patients with COVID-19. Yet 1 million Americans died.

So, two years after record job losses, the state Department of Employment Development’s April jobs report details a remarkable recovery.

The number of Southern California workers is just 108,000 less than pre-pandemic employment. Unemployment in the region fell to 4.1%.

What is beef?

Unprecedented support for consumers and businesses restored employment and boosted savings accounts and investment stocks.

Consumers were in the mood to spend — and businesses were happy to oblige. All the shopping amid supply chain challenges pushed inflation rates to 40-year highs.

At last count, the cost of living has risen 10% in one year in the Inland Empire and 8.5% in LA-OC

Shortage of workers

Consider the number of Southern Californians who are officially unemployed.

When the virus hit, around 1 in 6 local workers lost their jobs. The official number of unemployed quickly quadrupled.

The rehiring frenzy left only 363,000 unemployed in April 2022, about a third less than Southern California’s average number of unemployed since 1990.

And you wonder why the average weekly wage in the region has increased by 15% in the two years ending in September 2021?

Shopping spree

The coronavirus has changed the way we buy the products we need.

The transportation and warehousing sectors were the big winners, as online retail grew even faster.

Local logistics stores cut 28,000 jobs when the virus hit, but since that low point, 111,000 such jobs have been added, about four times the virus-related layoffs.

At the start of the pandemic, there were fears that shopping malls would disappear. Southern California store owners have cut 150,000 jobs because clicking to buy products from home has become too easy.

But the “death of the mall” thesis turned out to be false. People wanted the in-person shopping experience, and brick-and-mortar merchants have now replaced all of their pandemic job cuts.

Of course, this leads to a new question: do we now have too many people tending to the shopping needs of Southern Californians?

real worries

Another big winner from the pandemic has been the real estate sector.

Cheap mortgages and a thirst for larger living spaces have spurred demand for home purchases, rental units and mortgages.

Starting this year, however, mortgage rates that fell below 3% amid the pandemic have jumped above 5%.

This quickly chilled the real estate industry.

Real estate, finance and construction bosses initially cut 76,000 jobs but renewed 63,000 as the real estate game heated up. But the sudden housing chill has cost 4,000 workers their jobs in recent months.

Less fun?

All that idle money floating around in the economy has helped the restaurant industry get back to near normal levels.

Southern California restaurant owners have cut 300,000 jobs as pandemic-related business limitations have made operations difficult or impossible. But the easing of restrictions and people’s urge to get out have allowed restaurants to replace all but 22,000 of those lost jobs.

The same cannot be said for the other peddlers of “pleasure” – the hotel industry and the leisure and entertainment industries.

Together they cut 160,000 jobs as tourism and gatherings were closed. Their reopenings replaced only 120,000 of those positions.

These companies are still suffering from a lingering reluctance to be in large crowds, particularly a slow return to business travel.

Mixed markets

Rehiring is by no means universal when viewed through a geographic prism.

The Inland Empire job market is the hot spot.

Bosses in Riverside and San Bernardino counties first cut 220,500 workers, then added 277,000, 25% more than the cuts. Unemployment rose from 3.9% in February 2020 to a mid-pandemic peak of 15.6% and fell back to 3.8% in April.

In Orange County, bosses shaved off 272,000 workers soon after the virus hit. Since the trough, 233,200 jobs have been recovered, or 86% of OC losses. Unemployment fell from 2.8% to 15.5% to 2.7%.

LA County suffered 785,000 job cuts to start the pandemic era, then added 659,000 jobs, or 84% of the losses. LA unemployment fell from 4.3% to 19.20% to 4.7%.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be contacted at [email protected]